Nicole And Robert Downey Mentioned In Predictions!, Oscarwatch gives out early predictions! Options

[NicoleFan17]

I don't know who else is very familiar of Oscarwatch.com, but they are, IMO, the go to place if you want your updates for anything to do with the Academy Awards. They have some of the best and most informal writers I've seen and I was very happy to see that both Nicole (for Best Actress) and Robert Downey Jr.(Best Supporting Actor) are mentioned in their yearly early oscar predicts:

For Best Actress:

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

One of the biggest ‘question marks’ of this year’s race is what will become of Meryl Streep’s performance in The Devil Wears Prada. Wickedly funny, thoroughly scary and surprisingly complex, everyone was buzzing about it. And we all know that Academy loves Meryl. But what of the categorization? Far larger roles have gone supporting, a category I personally believe Meryl can win for this performance. Yet ultimately I feel that this is more of an "Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs" scenario. Despite limited screentime, she gets first billing, is playing the title character and utterly dominates the film, providing us with her biggest hit in over 20 years. Lead will be a harder sell…but I still feel comfortable predicting her for a nod.


The performance I actually feel most comfortable predicting for a nod here is Annette Bening’s star turn in Running with Scissors. In The Grifters, American Beauty and Being Julia, Bening chewed scenery like candy (not that she didn’t have wonderfully understated scenes) yet pulled off tremendous characterizations and was rewarded with Oscar nods. Here, she is playing what has been described as the ‘bipolar dyke mother-from-hell’ and I can’t think of who would fit the role better (even though it was originally supposed to be Julianne Moore’s). Early signs indicate she doesn’t disappoint.

Sight unseen, most in the predicting game (okay, people on the forums) anointed the favourite here to be Kate Winslet for Todd Field’s Little Children. it’s probably her most (on paper) ‘baity’ exercise to date, working with a truly complex character under the direction of Todd Field. So as I’m currently predicting the film to land a BP nod, I can’t really omit her. Four nominations before the age of 30 can't be ignored.

An actress who has had a somewhat mixed track record with Oscar would be Nicole Kidman. After an amazing 2001/2002 (where she was so big it would have been difficult not to end up with two nominations and a win), she’s gone back to being a similar position in her runs in ’91, ’95 and ’99- a contender who has not managed to cross the finish line. But Picturehouse seems absolutely devoted to Fur, where she will be playing the late great photographer Diane Arbus. Steven Shainberg is a rising star and early buzz (whatever the hell that means) is good, especially in regards to her performance. Plus, after her ‘classy’ marriage and her ex’s falling off his rocker, she has some ‘non-filmic’ goodwill in her favor.


That brings us to my least favorite of the bunch -Ashley Judd. I find her an extremely annoying persona and I’ve yet to see a performance from her that I’ve liked. Yet year after year, the old ‘deglam’ trick tends to work for an actress I greatly dislike and word from Cannes is that Judd is in prime position to land that spot this year for William Friedkin’s Bug. The dedication that LGF shows their films was finally rewarded in a major way last year. You can count on them to push her as hard as possible…and you can count on the fact that she’ll work as hard as possible herself.

ALTERNATES

Beyonce, who has yet to prove she has acting chops but apparently gave it her all. Dreamgirls is poised to be dominant throughout awards’ season. Yet ultimately there were only five slots. I feel Meryl has the edge for a comedic slot, that Judd has the edge for a ‘surprise’ slot, that Bening and Winslet are leading the way and that Kidman…My instincts are telling me it's the right time for her to return to the shortlist. I’m betting Beyonce just misses.

Helen Mirren received immense praise earlier this year for playing Queen Elizabeth I. In December, Miramax will be presenting us with her take on Queen Elizabeth II in Stephen Frears’ The Queen. This is a fascinating situation, with Mirren seeming a great choice for the sitting monarch and also being ripe for a ‘vet Best Actress nod’ in what is without question a prestigious role. My only hesitation is in regards to the film’s roots as a TV venture and the ability of Miramax to get Oscar nods post-Weinsteins.

The other ‘obvious alternate’ would be Cate Blanchett, who has three films coming out this year. But which is most likely to score her a nod? Her role in The Good German is said to border on supporting while her work in Babel hasn't exactly generated buzz from overseas, not anymore than the film itself. I’d say her best shot is with Richard Eyre’s Notes on a Scandal. Yet Eyre and Fox Searchlight have had mixed track records with Oscar. And for that matter, so has Blanchett as well. Of the eight women I’d have leading this pack, Cate would be #8.

Chris Noonan is *finally* following up the wonderful Babe this year with Miss Potter, a biopic of the famous author. Renée Zellweger will try to get herself into the good books of the Academy and the public once more. But what’s up with the release date? And MGM is not renowned for their campaign abilities.

Lastly we come toPenelope Cruz for Volver. She’s received strong reviews for Cannes for her work and both she and Almodovar have high profile. But it usually takes quite something for foreign language performances to be nominated. And I’d think that Almodovar will have to try something more ‘dramatic’ to get his actors noticed (his films, despite always being well acted, have never received serious stateside awards’ traction).

So in conclusion, my predicted lineup:

Annette Bening- Running with Scissors
Ashley Judd- Bug
Nicole Kidman- Fur
Meryl Streep- The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winsley- Little Children

Alternates: Beyoncé Knowles- Dreamgirls; Helen Mirren- The Queen
Rounding Out the Top Ten: Cate Blanchett- Notes on a Scandal (or The Good German); *you know who* Cruz- Volver; Renée Zellweger- Miss Potter

Best Supporting Actor:

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Lastly we come to the category that often gets the least hype but I nevertheless look forward to a great deal (at least compared to many fellow Oscar-observers) year in and year out.

Supporting Actor almost invariably has a talent I truly like taking the statue and also finds itself the spot of many ‘nomination morning’ surprises.

PREDICTIONS

Leading the way here is, in my opinion- and the opinion of most people observing the race at all- Eddie Murphy’s take on James Thunder Early in Dreamgirls. One of our greatest comedic talents alive, he’s never really made a serious Oscar run. That ought to be changing this year. Eddie will likely chew scenery like it’s gum in this role but that’s just what it calls for- an energetic, lively star turn with humour, a character arc and, most importantly, the ability to steal scenes. Time seems just about right for Murphy to ‘come back’ to the A-list.

A man whose comeback has been going exquisitely well is Robert Downey, Jr. He will be playing a horribly disfigured man (bait!) whose character’s condition leads to the title of Fur (important to the film!). Opposite Kidman (also coming off some nice press) and with advance word very kind, the time seems just about right to ‘welcome him back’. He also has a role of unknown significance in David Fincher’s Zodiac, which I can’t imagine will hurt matters.



Then we come to two ‘British vets’. Brian Cox has proven himself to be dependable across a plethora of genres and has worked across many of the industry’s biggest names. In Running with Scissors, he’ll have the opportunity to be both ‘wise’ and ‘funny’, which is always a good combo. He’s due for a nod and said to steal scenes. I think he’s in.

Meanwhile, Michael Caine is a longstanding Academy favourite, having earned a nomination or two a decade going back to 1966’s Alfie. He’s won this category twice, on both his nominations here. This year, he’ll be playing the ‘old man’ role in Christopher Nolan’s The Prestige where he should have an excellent opportunity to blend wisdom, cunning and humour, making himself the film’s best chance at a major nod. Even if the Nolan film doesn’t work out for him, there’s always Alfonso Cuaron’s The Children of Men, which he’s also said to be superb in. He looks like a 70-year old John Lennon in the trailer.

I personally doubt that The Departed is going to be a major Oscar player. The film hardly sounds ‘baity’ to me and WB ought to be expected to put their major support elsewhere. That said, there is seldom a greater ‘Oscar presence’ than that of Jack Nicholson. We still don’t really know who he’s playing. But a mob boss sounds like something Jack ought to have fun with. And one wouldn’t think he’d work with Scorsese for the first time in a less-than-great role. So I’m willing to bet- for now, at least, that he’ll sneak the ‘last spot’.

ALTERNATES

My ‘first alternate’ here is another vet in a film from a director with a hit-and-miss track record with Oscar. I’m speaking of Albert Finney in Ridley Scott’s A Good Year. The next time Finney gives a performance people love, I’d venture to say he’s the favourite to win the Oscar. But until we get some idea who he’s playing in this film, I think it’s safer to leave him out of the predictions. The trailer makes the role seem to be ‘flashback only’.

Another actor who has been around a LOOOONG time is Beau Bridges, said to have an interesting role in Steven Soderbergh’s The Good German. Having never even been nominated, I suspect AMPAS would jump at the opportunity to nominate him if the role/film is right. It might be…but as I said last week, I’m not sold on this film. At least not yet.

One thing that this category has demonstrated in recent years is their willingness to welcome near-leads (Gyllenhaal, Del Toro, Owen) or even indisputable leads (Foxx, Hawke). This year, up-and-comer James McAvoy gets to play the doctor who realizes his complicity in the brutal regime of Idi Amin. It certainly seems to the role of the protagonist, at least from the premise and the book. And it also ought to be a fascinating role. Worthy of consideration anyway.

Michael Pena got his profile drastically increased last year with Crash, a film I personally felt he gave one of the best performances in. Yet he never really captured the fancy of awards’ bodies nor did he even share in the SAG ensemble award. Advance word on Oliver Stone’s World Trade Center- a film stamped with importance by its very nature- is kind. And Pena could be just the way to reward it. It’s bound to be a very sympathetic- and heroic- character.

Rounding out the top ten I actually have two performances- which I ultimately feel will ‘do each other in’. I’m talking of the already acclaimed work of Steve Carrell and Alan Arkin in the ‘already a critical darling’ Little Miss Sunshine. Carrell’s career has been going extremely well of late and this will be a slightly more dramatic take on things. Arkin hasn’t been nominated since the ‘60s and is said to get the film’s biggest laughs. And therein lies the problem…which one will get more traction comes year’s end. If either?

So in conclusion, my predictions:
Michael Caine- The Prestige (or The Children of Men)
Brian Cox- Running with Scissors
Robert Downey, Jr. - Fur
Eddie Murphy- Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson- The Departed

First-Tier Alternates: Beau Bridges- The Good German; Albert Finney- A Good Year
Rounding Out the Top Ten: Alan Arkin OR Steve Carrell- Little Miss Sunshine; James McAvoy- The Last King of Scotland; Michael Pena- World Trade Center

Source.

Also, they have Fur as an Alternate for Best Picture:

This year, the film I’m most confident in predicting for a Best Picture slot is Bill Condon’s Dreamgirls. It should clear to anyone that Dreamworks is absolutely devoted to this one. The director is the sort who seems like he will be embraced by AMPAS eventually (Kinsey and Gods and Monsters had Oscar on their mind and garnered considerable awards attention), the crew is a good combo of AMPAS vets and ‘those who are waiting’, the music is fantastic, the story is up their alley. Moreover, it is the sort of musical, unlike The Phantom of the Opera or The Producers, that has traditionally been Oscar fodder. It is not being an operetta and has pretty serious themes underneath its ‘fun’ surface. I also feel that the Academy would jump at the chance to award a film with an all-black cast. It is true that the cast doesn’t exactly read like Oscar night regulars… but did Brokeback Mountain’s, much less Crash’s?


Traditionally, there is at least one nominee to come from the pre-Fall period. And I feel comfortable in saying that this year won’t be an exception and that Paul Greengrass’ United 93 will make it all the way to this category. The immense ‘importance’ factor, how gripping the story is, Greengrass’ respected status and the certainty of numerous top ten placements make me feel comfortable with this prediction. Though the lack of great box office and the crew not being seasoned with Academy pedigree make this far from being a lock.

Speaking of which, there are no ‘locks’ this far in advance (with extremely rare exceptions like Finding Nemo for Animated Feature in ’03 or Julia Roberts for Best Actress in ’00). Yet I nevertheless feel comfortable with those two predictions. Beyond them, however, I find it gets more murky.

Also already a critical favourite is Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu’s Babel. His third straight ensemble film surrounding tragedy, this was a major favourite at Cannes and won Innaritu the director’s prize there. Now, I’m not sold in Paramount’s ability as Oscar campaigners. And in many ways this film seems more of the ‘lone director’ sort.

BUT Innaritu love from AMPAS has gradually been growing with each film and this represents the closure of a certain part of his career. I think this film is destined to be a major critical fave. We’ll see how far those pesky critics can take it. I have not cared for anything I’ve seen from Arriaga or Innaritu thus far but that is neither here nor there. For ever since Cannes, this film has just felt ‘right’ to me being in my predix.

I’m not terribly confident in Todd Field’s Little Children. ‘Sophomore’ efforts tend to be hit-and-miss with the Academy, as are New Line’s efforts. Tom Perotta’s book is also pretty off-putting (I, for one, didn’t much care for it). So why am I predicting this? Mainly on account of the other major nominations I feel it is likely to receive. I’ll unleash my shortly, but I see this film as a major contender across the board. Moreover, Field’s first effort wasn’t totally embraced by AMPAS, being shutout of the wins and with Field himself missing a director nod. They still may feel ever so slightly obliged to him. It’ll have to be very good, no question about that. Yet I feel Field can deliver.

Robert DeNiro’s The Good Shepherd certainly has all the right pedigree for a BP nominee (if I couldn’t care less about it). It’s from a beloved actor, has a top-notch tech crew, a cast of various talents who all have been embraced by the Academy before while also having an epic story that the Academy likes to embrace.

Yet I’m not confident. Maybe it’s because DeNiro has yet to prove himself as a director. Maybe it’s because DeNiro, Pesci and Jolie have been stuck in mediocrity for so long. Maybe it’s because almost all the actors-turned-directors who get embraced by the Academy do so without having received lots of acting nods beforehand.

Yet my Best Picture lineup is currently lacking in a ‘large’ film outside of Dreamgirls. Moreover, one can expect Universal to push hard for this one (they’ve certainly invested a lot) while the time seems just about perfect for Matt Damon to score another again with the Academy.

ALTERNATES

I was *this* close to giving the last slot in my lineup to Kevin Macdonald’s The Last King of Scotland. Macdonald’s previous (documentary) efforts have been very fine indeed. Moreover, this seems to be a unique take on a fascinating piece of history. Yet it has taken something ‘special’ for Fox Searchlight to get a BP nod in the past. And while this movie’s cast seems the sort to be ‘waiting’ for some Academy recognition (Whitaker, Anderson, Washington), the crew is quite unseasoned. I’ll leave it just outside my predictions despite thinking it could really be very good.

Recent history has shown it is *extremely* difficult to make another Best Picture nominee so soon after a winner (Steven Spielberg’s five-year wait between Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan is the shortest gap in the last dozen years and he had the snubbed Amistad in the middle). Flags of Our Fathers, alongside companion piece Red Sun, Black Sand, sounds extremely interesting. Yet Clint Eastwood has never really done anything like this before and Paul Haggis has also found himself rewarded amply recently. This strikes me as a ‘too much, too soon’ scenario’. Moreover, I suspect Dreamworks is more dedicated to their aforementioned musical.

All that said, I feel it is likely to wind up in contention (assuming it is any good) on account of the fact that some ‘larger’ films always end up in contention. And maybe they will nominate Haggis/Eastwood just to show they are proud of their recent choices? But I’ve always had this suspicion that it would fall short of the BP nomination.

Steven Soderbergh’s The Good German pairs recent Oscar winners George Clooney and Cate Blanchett in a post-war romance from an acclaimed book. ‘Wartime romances’ can certainly be Oscarbait (The English Patient) yet are just as often snubbed. Nor is the film’s crew that exemplary (especially compared to those aboard other competing features). Soderbergh acting as his own editor and cinematographer won’t score points with the various protective branches in the Academy either. Plus, Soderbergh more often misses than hits with Oscar.

But one still ought to consider it seriously…especially if it’s quite good. George Clooney is quite the popular man right now who has clearly been choosing his projects carefully (though again, his coming directly off a win may be somewhat of a hindrance).

I have this sneaking suspicion that Fur, from Steven Shainberg, could sneak up on us. It’s already received considerable press attention for such a ‘small’ film, the performances of Kidman and Downey seem to be contenders at the least while Picturehourse seems determined to get out of the gate big this year. But it’s difficult to put faith in such a project until we actually see more of it. At least in this category.

Christopher Nolan’s The Prestige looks awesome in the opinion of this viewer with a great cast, great production values and the potential to hit it with the public. Nolan also strikes me as an inevitability to score with Oscar in a major way sooner rather than later. Yet Touchstone is a major ‘source of hesitation’ here. And to be frank, magic isn’t normally Oscarbait. But it just looks like it’s just loaded with so much potential?!? We’ll see.

There are, of course, many many other films that could- and probably will- factor into the Best Picture race. But from the humble opinion of this observer, these ten are looking to be the biggest threats from this vantage point.

So in conclusion, my predicted lineup:
Babel
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Little Children
United 93

Source.

I know we all don't want to get our hopes all up seeing that it's only July(at least where I am, lol) but, enjoy!

This post has been edited by NicoleFan17: Jul 28 2006, 05:13 AM

[kiha]

Thanks NicoleFan17

This is great news it be lovely if this movie could walk away with the top 3 Oscars this year

I am looking forward to this movie!!!

[maggie_QT_17]

nifty! thanks NicoleFan17!

[Bluebell]

Thanks for posting this. I am only recently familiar with Oscarwatch.com because of my love for the movie, Walk The Line but I would say they were pretty spot on last year. Let's hope this good buzz about Nicole' performance keeps up.

[Kensy]

That is so exciting and I am beyond happy for Nicole and I hope the movie does REALLY WELL!!!

But... I am SO disappointed that I won't be allowed to see this movie. I could be wrong, but it just seems to me, that the movies that win Oscars and Golden Globes are rated R.

Kensy

[red@gold]

FANTASTIC NEWS!!

Thank you so very much NicoleFan17 for including all that information.

[nathi]

oh well, I can't wait for Fur.

[kiki]

i'd love to see the movie now. however, i really don't care as much about the oscars anymore. that mixed track record mentioned i think DOES NOT apply to nicole's performances. it's all about the oscar committee and their nominations. if she turns another great performance (which i'm positive she will), then that'd be satisfying enough. i'd love to see meryl streep get nominated. she was great in devil. annette bening's character sounds like the one she played in american beauty (only a bit more neurotic). i hope she (nicole) gets recognized because i daresay the praises are always on paper (thus, people thinking she's overrated) but nothing deservingly tangible is given to her. oh well. i guess we'll just see.

This post has been edited by kiki: Jul 28 2006, 11:39 AM

[jacindabarrett14]

can't wait

[Einsof25]

Great great great, I would be sooooooooooo happy for Nicole and for Meryl if this become true... Let´s cross fingers...

[Samantha Stevens]

Great great great, I would be sooooooooooo happy for Nicole and for Meryl if this become true... Let´s cross fingers...

thanks!
ciao

[jacindabarrett14]

nic you go girl. bring home that oscar.

[skankyoldwhore]

Ah, the predictors. Wouldn't it be nice to see the movies first .

[chattyjaz522]

Great great great, I would be sooooooooooo happy for Nicole and for Meryl if this become true... Let´s cross fingers...

me too meryl was rele rele good in the devil wears prada

[flafims]

Thanks, NicoleFan17!!
This is so exciting!! OMG!

[Grace Margaret M...]

me too meryl was rele rele good in the devil wears prada

that's no surprise - it's meryl streep, she can do no wrong

btw the Oscars Nominations Announcement is on January 23, 2007 and the Oscars are on February 25, 2007

[SatineKidman]

NicoleFan17!! thank you so much. This is a very good finding and very good news too.

there's something I want to ask though

Steven Shainberg is a rising star and early buzz (whatever the hell that means)

I wonder why the author wrote that he didn't know what it meant. Can anyone explain what early buzz means then? thanks

Great news about Fur. I had already read a couple rumors before about Fur getting nods, especially Nicole. Now I wonder if all this will make the producers or whoever is in charge push the movie to a later release date for better chances.

Thanks again, and can't wait to see more.

Marie

[BabyNick]

Thanx 4 da info NicoleFan17
Well I cant w8 2 c Fur I really hope Nic gets nominated cos from wot we've all heard, she's fantastic in dis film

~Viviana~

[Urbanfamilylove]

This is so great to hear! It makes me even more excited for this films' release!

[luis]

What about the trailer!!! We are only five month away and still not a trailer.

This post has been edited by luis: Jul 30 2006, 06:26 AM